Musharraf Steps Down

Musharraf Steps Down

 

 

Washington Post

Musharraf Steps Down as Head of Pakistani Army

 

 

Gen. Musharraf, 64, handed over his post to vice-army chief and retired from the army at an elaborate ceremony on a vast parade ground inside army headquarters.

 

Musharraf to take oath Thursday as Pakistan's civilian president for next five years

 

The army has been my life. The army has been my passion. The army has been my pride. The system has to carry on, there is a time when everyone has to go- Musharraf

 

Tomorrow I will no longer be in command, but I am happy I spent these 46 years in very excellent manner- Musharraf

 

Musharraf formally handed over the symbol of army command a long bamboo stick to General Ashfaq Kiyani-

 

General Kayani is understood to want to remove the army from the forefront of politics and concentrate on military concerns- NYT

 

 

The Comparison- Newsweek

America's uneasy relationship with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf brings to mind another compromised former ally, the Shah of Iran. It's been nearly 30 years since the shah flew into exile in 1979, but Musharraf's frantic struggle to regain control of his country has raised scary memories of that time.

 

 

Reuters on General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani

 

* Born into one of northern Punjab province's largest and most powerful clans, Kayani, 55, studied at a military college in his home region of Jhelum, before training at the U.S. army's Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, and the National Defense College in Islamabad.

 

* After fighting as a lieutenant in the 1971 war against India, Kayani slipped into politics as deputy military secretary to Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 1988. He won accolades for sensitively overseeing troop movements in a tense 2001-2002 border standoff between Pakistan and India as the army's chief operational commander.

 

* In September 2003, Kayani was promoted to command the army's elite 10 Corps in the garrison town of Rawalpindi. The chain smoker headed investigations into two December 2003 assassination attempts against Musharraf, securing several convictions, before being appointed director-general of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agencyin October 2004.

 

* Closely involved in Pakistan's anti-terrorism initiatives, the low-profile military man is said to be well-regarded by U.S. counterparts. His promotion to general and appointment as vice army chief in early October came as part of Musharraf's planned transition to civilian leader.

 

• This year, Kayani was involved in inconclusive negotiations with Bhutto on a power-sharing deal whereby Musharraf would continue as civilian president and Bhutto, Kayani's former boss, returned to politics. Seen as largely apolitical, Kayani is also president of the Pakistan Golf Federation with a handicap of 18, according to Pakistan-focused blog The Insider Brief.

 

 

 

 

 

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NewsGuru on Troika Politics

Part-1--Swat Operation

 

 

Pakistan army takes control of key peaks

 

Mountain tops in Bara Bande, Kuza Bande, Mam Dheri and Segram sanitized- ISPR

 

Cobra Helicopters engage militants-

 

 

 

Part-II-------Troika Politics

 

 

Under the election laws, it is highly doubtful that Nawaz Sharif can contest elections- Attorney General Malik Qayyum

 

Pakistan's Sharif Files for Elections- WP

 

Military officials confirm President Pervez Musharraf will step down as army chief Wednesday- WP

 

Musharraf, 64, did not say when he would end emergency rule- WP

 

Re-emergence of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as a central player in Islamabad's power equation is unnerving the Bush administration, consumed with its global fight against al Qaeda and Islamist militancy- NYT

 

 

 

Senior U.S. officials welcomed Gen. Musharraf's decision to step down as army chief, but worry Mr. Sharif's potential role in any new Pakistani government could undermine efforts to hunt down al Qaeda and Taliban militants-NYT

 

 

 

Fired judges should be restored with dignity and honor- Nawaz Sharif

 

Musharraf chief of army staff since 1998, will hand over command to his deputy, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani- Bloomberg

 

 

 

Benazir Bhutto says United States was pushing for an alliance of moderate parties to govern the country- Telegraph

 

 

 

 

 

This will be a decisive week in Pakistani politics. Pervez Musharraf has been diminished by Nawaz Sharif's return- Guardian

 

There are attempts not only to outmanoeuvre Musharraf but to outmanoeuvre each other- Guardian

 

 

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Sharif Returns

Sharif Returns

 

 

 

 

Throngs Welcome Pakistan's Ex-Leader- WP

 

Sharif Calls for Lifting Emergency Measures- WP

 

What Pakistan Needs

The worst thing the United States could do now would be to cut back support for Pakistan- WP

 

Bitterest Rival of Musharraf Returns Home- NYT

 

I have come to save this country- Nawaz Sharif

 

Pakistani Middle Class, Beneficiary of Musharraf, Begins to Question Rule- NYT

 

Sharif's Return Stirs Pakistan Election Pot- WSJ

 

A Challenger Welcomed - Washington Times

 

Ballot cannot be free or fair without an independent press and judiciary- Opposition Parties

 

Sharif Gets a Hero's Welcome- LAT

 

Nawaz Sharif's return could fill the opposition's leadership void-  CSM

 

Leader Overthrown by Musharraf Returns to Pakistan- USA TODAY

 

We want democracy and nothing else- Nawaz Sharif

 

Pakistan Crowds Welcome Sharif- Chicago tribune

 

 

Nawaz Sharif Returns to Pakistan- Telegraph

 

Musharraf's Troubles Deepen as Sharif Makes Triumphant Return- Guardian

 

Nawaz Sharif makes it Home after Pressure from Saudi Arabia- Times

 

Thousands celebrate return of exiled former PM-  Globe and Mail

 

Ex-Pakistan PM: Won't Serve As Premier under Musharraf- AP

 

Pakistan's Sharif Joins Election Battlefield- AFP

 

Pakistan's Bhutto Says Ready for Sharif Alliance- AFP

 

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NEWSGURU---Political Cauldron

Part-1---Political Cauldron

 

 

Musharraf wants to reach out to Nawaz Sharif or extend his exile?

 

Musharraf spent less than 24 hours in Saudi Arabia.

 

Musharraf meets King Abdullah, Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz, Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and intelligence chief Murqin bin Abdul-Aziz

 

Newsday

US President George W. Bush may be forced to choose between President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto

 

The Washington Post

The general hasn't crossed the line and truly is somebody who believes in democracy- US President Bush

 

Part-II--------Legal Matters

 

 

Musharraf to leave Army Post-

 

If the Supreme Court lifts the stay order against his re-election, then President Musharraf is likely to take the oath as a civilian president by Saturday or Sunday- Attorney General Malik Muhammad Qayyum

 

We are getting closer to when emergency order would be lifted, elections would be held and President Musharraf would take off uniform- White House Spokesperson Dana Perino

 

 

 

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Political Scene

Part-1—Political Scene

 

We remain concerned that there has not been a lifting of the emergency order- White House Spokesperson Dana Perino

 

US Ambassador meets JUI President Maulana Fazlur Rehman- US Embassy Spokesperson

 

US Ambassador Anne Patterson to meet other political leaders and opposition parties as well- Embassy Spokesperson

 

3416 imprisoned politicians, lawyers released, 2000 still under detention-

 

Courts to decide release of detainees facing criminal charges-

 

Upto 140 militants killed in Swat and Para Chinar-

 

There are reports of foreign involvement in Swat-

 

Former Supreme Court judges are free to go wherever they want to-

 

 

 

Part-2 Election 2008

 

Election on January 8, 2008

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Media Curbs in Pakistan

Part-1 Media Curbs:

 

All restrictions on media be lifted- EU

US expresses grave concerns over the orders to suppress the news media- US Ambassador Anne W. Patterson

 

Such extreme and unreasonable measures are clearly not in Pakistan's best interest- US

 

Media curbs contradict progress toward becoming a fully democratic society- US

 

US Ambassador urges Pakistan to lift the curbs on media and immediately permit broadcasters to resume their programming-

 

Media must be free to report on events and share their opinions with the public-Ambassador Patterson

 

Suppression of media and arrests run directly counter to reforms- Negroponte

 

 

 

US, EU Reaction

 

 

 

US Hopes to Arm Pakistani Tribes Against Al Qaeda- NYT

 

Washington's $100 Mln Nuclear Security Programme for Pakistan- NYT

 

Foreign Office Reaction:

 

Pakistan and US engaged in mutually agreeable cooperation in rudimentary training and ideas to strength security and surveillance-

Equipment for tracing nuclear material is of a basic nature and is needed to prevent smuggling of such materials from ports  or other exit points-

Pakistan's red lines have always been clear which ensure that our control and safety procedures remain fully protected and secure-

 

 

John Negroponte

 

Negroponte meets President Musharraf, General Ashfaq Kiani, General Nadeem Taj, Tariq Aziz and telephones Benazir Bhutto

 

President Musharraf has been and continues to be a strong voice against extremism-

 

President Musharraf reiterates commitment to retire from army before commencing his second presidential term- Negroponte

 

I urged the government to stop such actions, lift the state of emergency, and release all political detainees- Negroponte

 

Emergency rule is not compatible with free, fair, and credible elections- Negroponte

 

I encouraged reconciliation between political moderates as the most constructive way forward- Negroponte

Foreign Office:

 

Foreign Office regrets European Parliament's Resolution on situation in Pakistan- FO

Emergency imposed to avert an institutional breakdown and internal crisis that paralysed government- FO

Elections before 9th January 2008- FO

President to take off uniform by end-November- FO

European Parliament should not aggravate the ground situation by unrealistic and intrusive demands- FO

European Parliament Resolution

Demands unequivocally to end emergency and restore 1973 Constitution

Concerned over arrests of more than 3 000 citizens, including leaders of political parties, lawyers, journalists, human rights activists

Judicial independence be restored- EU

EU Calls on Member States fully to respect EU code of conduct on arms exports-

EU calls for expanding aid to Pakistan for social sectors and channelling funds through secular NGOs

 

 

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News Guru on Caretakers

Caretakers

 

Things would be much worse in Pakistan if we didn't have emergency rule- Pervez Musharraf

 

Government withdraws Bhutto's detention order-

 

US envoys to discuss cooperation between Musharraf and opposition figures to stabilize situation- LA Times

 

Political process derailed- Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte

 

We want to work with political actors to put the process back on track- Negroponte

 

Negroponte likely to meet with President Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto, Foreign Secretary Vice COAS General Ashfaq Kiani

 

Nawaz Sharif ready to join hands with Bhutto for restoration of constitution

 

No one has consulted about caretaker set up- Nawaz

 

Restoration of constitution, reinstatement of judiciary, free media top priorities- Nawaz

 

All opposition parties need to take a unified position on poll boycott- Nawaz

 

Nawaz wants to return as soon as possible

 

 

 

 

Benazir Bhutto rejects caretaker government, as not acceptable

Seven close allies of President part of caretaker set up

Caretaker PM Mohammadmian Soomro is Chairman Senate since 2003

 

 

Caretaker Portfolios

1-Shahzada Alam Monnoo, Minister for Commerce, Trade and Industry

2-Barrister Habibur Rehman, Minister for Communications

3-Sikander Jogezai, Minister for Culture

4-Dr. Salim Abbas Jillani, Minister for Defence and Defence Production

5-Dr. Salman Shah, Minister for Finance, Economic Affairs, Revenue and Statistics

6-Dr. Shamsh K. Lakha, Minister for Education, Science and Technology

7-Syed Wajid H. Bokhari ,Minister for Environment, Local Government and Rural Development

8-Prince Essa Jan, Minister for Food, Agriculture and Livestock

9-Inam-Ul-Haque, Minister for Foreign Affairs

10-Nisar Ali Khan, Minister for Housing and Works

11-Ansar Burney, Minister for Human Rights

12-Salman Taseer, Minister for Industries, Production and Special Initiatives

13-Nisar A. Memon, Minister for Information and Broadcasting

14-Dr. Abdullah Riar, Minister for Information Technology

15-Hamid Nawaz Khan, Minister for Interior and Narcotics

16-Abbas Sarfraz, Minister for KANA and SAFRON

17-Nisar Ghumman, Minister for Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis

18-Syed Afzal Haider, Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs

19-Raja Tri Dev Roy, Minister for Minorities

20-Ahsan Ullah Khan, Minster for Petroleum and Natural Resources

21-Dr. Fahim Ansari, Minister for Ports and Shipping

22-Khawaja Attaullah, Taunsa Sharif Minister for Religious Affairs, Zakat and Ushr

23-Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, Minister for Tourism and Youth Affairs

24-Dr. Shahida Jamil, Minister for Women Development, Social Welfare and Special Education

 

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News Guru on Security Situation and Politics

News Guru on Security Situation and Politics

PCO amended giving powers to revoke emergency to President

President to resign as army chief before December 1, 2007- Attorney General Malik Qayyyum

 

As soon Supreme Court decides Presidential case, he will take off his uniform- AG

 

MIAN NAWAZ SHARIF

Former Prime Minister

-Benazir calls Nawaz to discuss common agenda

-Reinstatement of sacked judges must for free, fair elections- Nawaz Sharif

-Possibility of APC discussed between Nov 18-21-

-President Musharraf should step down- Nawaz Sharif

-Things have gone too far for any reconciliation-

 

 

 

 

 

Gunship helicopters target militants North of Kabal and Kuza Bande

Army launches major offensive to clear Besham Shangla Road

Artillery and Mortars being uses to clear the area

20 militants killed on Thursday in Swat

 

Clashes continue between security forces and followers of Maulana Fazlullah

 

Civilian casualties reported

 

US military is looking at alternate routes to send supplies to Afghanistan-

 

US sends 75 pct supplies for Afghan war through Pakistan-

 

Pentagon says it was not worried about security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons-

 

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News Guru on Swat Operations- NA term

Army about to launch operation in Swat and Bajaur

 

Several criminal gangs jumped in under Taliban garb

 

Military to target Khwazakhela and Matta

 

TNSM and Maulvi Fazllullah linked militants prime targets

 

 Army plan to sanitise affected areas in six weeks

 

192 army men, 62 FC troops and 63 policemen killed in 161 terrorist attacks, including 8 suicide attacks

 

Pakistan Army launches operation in coordination with US forces based in Afghanistan

 

1047 local and foreign terrorists killed since Oct 2001

 

ISPR says:

 

 

Gunship helicopters and artillery guns target militants in Swat

 

4 miscreants killed in North of Hazara village

 

At Shangla top, miscreant positions destroyed, 6 killed

 

6 militants killed near Hazara Bridge

 

IED attack on a security convoy near Batkhela leaves 8 injured

 

 

 

 

-       NA to stand dissolved by mid-night on Nov 15

-       Notification to dissolve NA ready

-       Provincial Assemblies to be dissolved on Nov 20

-       Leading lights in run to be caretakers

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News Guru on Long March to Democracy-2

Part-1

Long March to Democracy

 

 

Benazir Bhutto demands President Pervez Musharraf to quit-

 

Benazir Bhutto detained-

 

It is over with Musharraf- Bhutto

 

I would not serve as prime minister under Musharraf- Bhutto

 

Credible reports terrorist may target BB- Cheema

 

 

IRI Polls

 

IRI's public opinion research shows consistent desire for democratic governance-

 

Polls show 83 pct Pakistanis oppose declaration of emergency-

 

 

 

 

Part-2-------International Reaction

 

 

Japan watching current political situation very closely-

 

Japan expresses deep concern over imposition of emergency as a setback for democracy-
 

Japan has consistently supported Pakistan's fight against terrorism and its efforts for consolidation of democracy-

Japan strongly expects that the situation in Pakistan will be normalized promptly and it will return to the process toward the consolidation of democracy-

Japan was considering more ODA for Pakistan before imposition of emergency-

I have concerns about the current situation in Pakistan- Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura 

Japan would re-examine carefully whether to increase the amount of aid at this point-

 

Japan to consider every option- Foreign Minister

 

 

 

 

 

----------------------------------------------

US Ambassad Anne W. Patterson

 

Imposition of emergency serious setback for democracy-  US Ambassad Anne W. Patterson

 

Pakistan's move toward democracy has been seriously set back by events of November 3- Patterson

 

Do not throw away in weeks what Pakistan has taken years to achieve- Patterson

 

State of emergency put economic growth of Pakistan and upward mobility at risk- Patterson

 

American investors have adopted a wait and see attitude now- Patterson

 

Longer extra-constitutional measures stay in place, greater damage to Pakistan's economy- Patterson

 

For elections to be credible, government must release opposition party leaders and workers from jail or house arrest- Patterson

 

Media must be free to report on events and criticize the government- Patterson

 

There is no way to put this genie back in the bottle by cutting off the media now- Patterson

 

Pakistan must tackle extremists and militants operating within its borders to continue its economic progress- Patterson

 

 

Commonwealth

 

CMAG condemned abrogation of Constitution and Proclamation of Emergency

 

CMAG will meet again on Nov 22, 2007 to discuss Pakistan

 

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News Guru--Long March to Democracy

PART-1---------Long March to Democracy

 

We should have elections before the 9th of January- Pervez Musharraf

 

Emergency necessary to ensure fair and transparent elections-

 

National Assembly to be dissolved on Nov 15, Provincial Assemblies on Nov 20-

 

I am for independence of media. I still stand by it- General Musharraf

 

I shall take oath as civilian president of Pakistan after SC decision- Musharraf

 

Pakistan Army (Amendment) Ordinance, 2007 promulgated-

 

Pakistan under dictatorship is a pressure cooker about to explode- Benazir Bhuttto

 

Restore Constitution- Commonwealth

 

 

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

 

Planned parliamentary election and Musharraf's pledge to quit as army chief positive elements

 

Musharraf needs to make sure these elections go forward. He needs to lift the state of emergency as soon as possible.

 

 

 PART-2--- International Concerns

Washington Post

Pakistan's Nuclear Security Questioned

Pakistan suspicious of US aims declined direct access to the half-dozen or so bunkers where components of about 50 nuclear weapons are stored-

We can't say with absolute certainty that we know where they all are- Former US officials

If an attempt was made by US to  seize the weapons it could be very messy-

The government in Islamabad is arguably the least stable-

Some Pakistani territory is partly controlled by insurgents bent on committing hostile acts of terrorism in the West-

US intelligence officials have long had contingency plans for intervening to obstruct such a theft in Pakistan-

Current turmoil highlights the need for doing whatever we can right now to improve cooperation and think hard about what might happen down the road- Matt Bunn, a former White House science official

Pakistan opts for physical separation of bomb components, such as isolating the fissile core or trigger from weapon.

 

----------

Former US Ambassador UN John Bolton tells CNN

United States should continue to support President Pervez Musharraf despite the emergency declaration in Pakistan because of concerns the nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of Islamic radicals-

 

I'd have to put securing those weapons at the top of our agenda-

 

---------

 

 

Commonwealth

It is essential that the Constitution and the rule of law be restored and the judiciary respected- Don McKinnon Commonwealth Secretary-General

Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) meets in London to discuss Pakistan- CMAG comprises the Foreign Ministers of nine countries -- Canada, Lesotho, Malaysia, Malta, Papua New Guinea, St Lucia, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom and United Republic of Tanzania

Step in the wrong direction and a serious setback to democracy- Don McKinnon

Pakistan was suspended from the councils of the Commonwealth in October 1999 and restored to full membership in May 2004

Restore Constitution before elections- CMAG Chairperson Malta's Foreign Minister Michael Frendo

 

 

 

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BENAZIR BHUTTO DETAINED AT HER HOME

General election by Feb 15, 2008- President Musharraf

 

We remain concerned about the continued state of emergency and curtailment of basic freedoms, and urge Pakistani authorities to quickly return to constitutional order and democratic norms- Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for US National Security Council

 

Former Prime Minister Bhutto and other political party members must be permitted freedom of movement and all protesters released- Gordon  Johndroe

 

Struggle for restoration of constitution to continue- Benazir Bhutto

More than five thousand workers arrested, MPs detained- PPP

Negotiations with Musharraf were meant for restoration of democracy- BB

No talks with regime after suspension of constitution- BB

 

 

National Democratic Institute urges return to democratic civilian rule in Pakistan- NDI

 

NDI calls for immediate release political prisoners-

 

Mass arrests, stringent curbs on media and abrogation of civil liberties undermine fundamental human and political rights- NDI President Kenneth Wollack

 

Credible elections are the only way out of the current crisis- Tom Daschle

 

United States remains committed to credible elections in Pakistan and urges President Musharraf to restore democracy as quickly as possible- US Consulate Bryan Hunt

 

 

US expects President Musharraf to step down as Army chief and begin transition to civilian democratic rule- US Consulate

 

US welcomes announcement of elections by February 15- US Consulate

 

US to send long-term independent election observers in Pakistan by November 20-

 

Benazir Bhutto under house arrest-

 

Large number of PPP supporters arrested-

 

Police baton charge protestors-

 

Trucks, containers block Rawalpindi roads-

 

For credible elections, opposition political party leaders and workers must be released from jail or house arrest- US statement

 

 

 

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NEWS GURU ON PRIVATISATION & INVESTMENT

PRIVATISTAION & INVETSMENT

 

 

Pakistan targets $3.5 bln privatisation proceeds during FY08- Privatisation Commission

 

Privatisation Commission receives $440.597 mln sale proceeds during Jul-Nov FY08- PC

 

Payments received include UBL GDRs $85 mln, HBL IPO $196 mln, Etisalat tranche for PTCL $133.217 mln and PKR 1.6 bln others- PC

 

Pakistani Companies to be listed in the international market through Global Depository Receipts (GDRs)-

 

GDRs of National Bank of Pakistan, Habib Bank Limited (HBL), Kot Adu Power Company (KAPCO) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) to be launched-

 

PC to offload Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) and Jamshoro Power Company (JPC)-

Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and AKD Securities Financial Advisors of NBP GDRs-

 

Current Account Deficit totals $2.15 bln during July-Sept FY08 or 1.3 pct of GDP- Finance Ministry

 

Export up by 5.8 pct, imports register 1 pct decline- Finance Ministry

 

Borrowing for budgetary support PKR 92.96 bln till Oct 27, 2007- SBP

 

Private credit off take totals PKR 38.23 bln till Oct 27, 2007- SBP

 

Broad Money Growth 1.76 pct till Oct 27, 2007-11-08

 

Foreign Private Investment $862.5 mln during Jul-Sep FY08, down by 6.2 pct- SBP

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves 16.35 bln- SBP

 

Rating agencies assign negative outlook-

 

Spreads on Pakistani bonds increases by 300 basis points

 

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NEWS GURU ON PRIVATISTAION & INVETSMENT

PRIVATISTAION & INVETSMENT

 

 

Pakistan targets $3.5 bln privatisation proceeds during FY08- Privatisation Commission

 

Privatisation Commission receives $440.597 mln sale proceeds during Jul-Nov FY08- PC

 

Payments received include UBL GDRs $85 mln, HBL IPO $196 mln, Etisalat tranche for PTCL $133.217 mln and PKR 1.6 bln others- PC

 

Pakistani Companies to be listed in the international market through Global Depository Receipts (GDRs)-

 

GDRs of National Bank of Pakistan, Habib Bank Limited (HBL), Kot Adu Power Company (KAPCO) and Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) to be launched-

 

PC to offload Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) and Jamshoro Power Company (JPC)-

Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and AKD Securities Financial Advisors of NBP GDRs-

 

Current Account Deficit totals $2.15 bln during July-Sept FY08 or 1.3 pct of GDP- Finance Ministry

 

Export up by 5.8 pct, imports register 1 pct decline- Finance Ministry

 

Borrowing for budgetary support PKR 92.96 bln till Oct 27, 2007- SBP

 

Private credit off take totals PKR 38.23 bln till Oct 27, 2007- SBP

 

Broad Money Growth 1.76 pct till Oct 27, 2007-11-08

 

Foreign Private Investment $862.5 mln during Jul-Sep FY08, down by 6.2 pct- SBP

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves 16.35 bln- SBP

 

Rating agencies assign negative outlook-

 

Spreads on Pakistani bonds increases by 300 basis points

 

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Musharraf's Emergency Rule Will Only Fuel Pakistan Crisis

Musharraf's Emergency Rule Will Only Fuel Pakistan Crisis

by Lisa Curtis

WebMemo #1691

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's imposition of emergency rule on November 3 appears aimed at avoiding the potential for an unfavorable Pakistani Supreme Court ruling that could invalidate the legitimacy of the October 6 presidential election. Aware that such a Supreme Court ruling—scheduled for this week—would have further eroded his credibility and intensified calls for him to step down from power altogether, Musharraf resorted to extra-constitutional measures to maintain his grip on power. The move will raise public anger against Musharraf, deepen civil–military tensions, and hinder the Army's ability to fight an already faltering war on extremists. Political Divisions Hamper Response to Surging Terrorism Pakistan's divisive politics are creating a situation in which a variety of Pakistani extremist groups that subscribe to al-Qaeda/Taliban goals are softening the state through an intensified campaign of violence. Since the July 10 Pakistan military operation at the Red Mosque, extremists have launched a series of revenge attacks that have killed hundreds of Pakistani security officials and civilians. Two suicide attacks—one on a bus carrying air force officials and another at a police checkpoint near Musharraf's office in Rawalpindi—together killed more than 15 people last week. The Pakistan military also recently sent troops to the Swat Valley in Northwest Pakistan to confront the forces of a militant cleric who has been inciting the population through radio broadcasts referencing the Red Mosque operation and calling on the people to rise up against the Musharraf regime. The October 18 bombing on Pakistan People's Party leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto that resulted in more than 150 deaths deepened political fissures in the country. Bhutto accused several senior officials surrounding Musharraf of maintaining close ties to militants and implied they were complicit in the bombing. Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid essentially blamed the bombing on Bhutto's tough stance against extremism and her recent statements in support of U.S. action in Pakistan to address the growing terrorist threat. These highly provocative public statements fuel political divisions and contribute to the overall weakening of the state in the face of the rising challenges to maintaining law and order.                    Imposition of emergency rule will further divide the country and will be unlikely to help the military guarantee the security of its citizens. Neither the Supreme Court nor the judiciary had sought to prevent the military from conducting operations in the Tribal Areas and the Swat Valley. In fact, the Supreme Court sought justice against the perpetrators of the October 18 bombings last Thursday when it asked the federal and provincial governments to submit a detailed report of the blasts within a week. Establishing emergency rule, which involves curbs on the media and dismissal of the judiciary, will heighten public anger against Musharraf and decrease overall support for the military. Also, the security services will be consumed with subduing an agitated civil society that will detract from efforts to prevent further terrorism. Tough U.S. Reaction Should Worry Musharraf The United States has stated its opposition to Musharraf's decision to impose emergency rule and expressed solidarity with the Pakistani people in pursuing a democratic process as the best way to counter violent extremism. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had publicly warned President Musharraf against taking the drastic measure on November 2, and so he will be seen as openly defying the U.S. position. It is important for the United States to maintain its strong stance against the draconian measures and in favor of an early general election so that Washington is not viewed as backing Musharraf against the public's will. The Pakistani public in recent years has grown increasingly resentful of U.S. policy toward Pakistan, which it perceives as placing U.S. counterterrorism interests ahead of Pakistani popular objectives like return to civilian democratic rule. Anger at the United States has eroded popular support for countering extremists, damaging U.S. objectives in the war on terrorism. Conclusion The best-case scenario for Pakistan at this critical point in its history would be for a caretaker government to take power and allow the major politicians to lead their parties in a general election at the earliest date possible. The election rules and guidelines would have to be established by a neutral caretaker government in touch with all of the major parties. In the past, Pakistan has established caretaker governments during periods of transition from military to civilian rule. For example, in 1993 a caretaker government was established to usher in elections that ended up bringing Benazir Bhutto to power for the second time. A credible election would be a major blow to the extremists and their agenda for Pakistan—which includes imposing harsh Islamic rule—and provide conditions for a smoother working relationship between civilian and military leaders to confront the rising tide of Islamic extremism and violence in the country. In any new political dispensation, the military would maintain a strong decision-making role, especially regarding security matters, and would continue to be responsible for keeping the country's nuclear assets safe and secure and out of the hands of terrorists. Musharraf has been an important ally for the United States in the war on terrorism, but his steps toward increasing authoritarianism have put him at odds with the moderate political forces of the country and thereby strengthened the extremists. Washington must consider carefully how to leverage its influence with Pakistani leaders to encourage this pivotal country of 165 million to transition to civilian-led government, while maintaining a military capable of focusing on confronting anti-state forces. Developing a united front between the Pakistani military leadership and moderate civilian politicians against the extremists remains the most promising path out of Pakistan's current crisis.    Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.

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Coup number two

Nov 5th 2007 | DELHI
From Economist.com

General Musharraf seizes power again

 

Reuters

OSCILLATING between military takeover and civilian disarray, Pakistan often seems consigned to a classical form of governmental perdition. Yet the coup that General Pervez Musharraf, the country's president, launched on Saturday November 3rd, was in fact something new. His first coup, in 1999, was designed to restore order after civilian misrule. Now General Musharraf wants to shore up his own unpopular, and perhaps illegal, government.

He has suspended the constitution—a step the government has inaccurately described as constituting a state of emergency—and sacked most of the Supreme Court's judges. This includes the chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, a champion of swelling opposition to the general. The courthouse in Islamabad is now sealed off by barbed wire and armed police. Private television news channels, foreign and Pakistani, have been hauled off-air. On November 4th the prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, suggested that a general election due in January could be postponed for a year though the next day he insisted that it would go ahead as planned in mid-January.

Over 500 lawyers, opposition politicians and human rights activists have been arrested. They include Asma Jahangir, boss of the country's human-rights commission and a former UN special rapporteur. In an e-mail from house arrest, where she has been placed for 90 days, Ms Jahangir regretted that General Musharraf had "lost his marbles".

General Musharraf's view, expressed in a midnight televised address, is that his intervention is required to prevent instability: "I cannot allow this country to commit suicide." He identified two urgent challenges: combating Islamist militancy, which is fuelling a small, but disastrous, war in north-western Pakistan; and his urge to "preserve the democratic transition that I initiated eight years back".

The second motive, properly understood, seems to be uppermost in the general's mind. The Supreme Court's judges had been due to rule on the legality of his recent re-election as president. In a poll boycotted by most opposition parties, he was restored to office in military uniform, though the constitution seems to forbid it, by the same rigged assembly that had already elected him once. Rumours last week suggested that, in a surprising turnaround, the judges were minded to conclude that this was illegal.

Around a dozen of the court's 17 judges, including Mr Chaudhry, condemned the coup as an illegal act, and have been sacked. Five approved it, including Abdul Hamid Doger, an artful ally of the general, who has been rewarded with the job of chief justice. General Musharraf will now hope to restock the court with loyalists.

Once that is done, he may indeed restore the constitution. General Musharraf is right that Pakistan faces serious instability. But in a country itching for democracy and increasingly resentful of his autocratic and pro-America stance, he is partly to blame. Early this year, after the general tried thuggishly to sack Mr Chaudhry, tens of thousands of protesters rallied against him. Last month, in a more ambiguous challenge to the general, 200,000 supporters of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP), rallied in Karachi to welcome her back from eight years in exile.

General Musharraf's campaign in the north-western tribal areas, an American-ordained policy that has come to symbolise his rule to many Pakistanis, is meanwhile threatened with disaster. The army is demoralised and increasingly suffering defeat at the hands of local zealots. In recent weeks, several hundred troops have surrendered; on November 5th 200 of these were reported to have been released by the militants in exchange for some 25 militants freed by the government. In his address to the nation, General Musarraf admitted that: "the extremists don't fear law enforcement agencies."

Yet America, and the general's other western allies, have frowned on his intervention. Condoleezza Rice, America's secretary of state, urged General Musharraf to hold the election as planned. She also hinted that American aid to his government—which has amounted to over $10 billion since 2001—might be cut.

Ms Bhutto's response is also likely to be crucial. She had been negotiating with General Musharraf to share power: indeed, her return from self-imposed exile, after General Musharraf issued her with an amnesty from corruption charges, was the sign of a tentative accommodation. In similar fashion, few PPP members have been arrested in the recent crackdown. General Musharraf may hope that Ms Bhutto and her party will offer him support.

Ms Bhutto's dalliance with the general has cost her popularity—even within her fanatically loyal party. Failing to oppose his coup wholeheartedly would be a further blow to her credibility. Which way will she go? So far, Ms Bhutto has roundly condemned the emergency as martial law by another name. But she has not yet rallied her followers against it.

 

 

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Timeline: How the crisis unfolded between Musharraf and Supreme Court

Timeline: How the crisis unfolded

 

 

March 9: Gen Musharraf demands Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry resigns, and later suspends him from office, sparking protests.

 

July 20: Mr Chaudhry returns to his post by order of the Supreme Court.

 

Aug 23: Mr Chaudhry rules that Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister who has been in exile in Saudi Arabia, can return to Pakistan.

 

Sept 10: Gen Musharraf sends police to meet Mr Sharif's plane at Islamabad airport. He is deported just four hours later.

 

Sept 13: Mr Chaudhry establishes a judicial panel to rule on whether Gen Musharraf can stand for re-election.

 

Oct 5: Gen Musharraf announces that Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister, would be exempt from prosecution on corruption charges if she returned to Pakistan.

 

Oct 6: Gen Musharraf is re-elected president, but the Supreme Court warns that result will not be ratified until it rules on his eligibility.

 

Oct 8: Former intelligence chief Ashfaq Kiyani takes over as vice-chief of the army and is set to take the top army job if Gen Musharraf steps aside.

 

Oct 17: The Supreme Court resumes hearing opposition challenges to Gen Musharraf's election.

 

Oct 18: Ms Bhutto returns to Pakistan, ending her eight-year exile.

 

Oct 19: Suicide bombers target Ms Bhutto's convoy, killing 139 of her supporters.

 

Nov 1: Ms Bhutto leaves Pakistan for Dubai to visit her family, after earlier cancelling a trip amid fears that Gen Musharraf would impose state of emergency or martial law.

 

Nov 3: Gen Musharraf declares a state of emergency, dismissing Mr Chaudhry. Ms Bhutto flies back to Pakistan.

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Bhutto leaves for Dubai

Benazir Bhutto leaves for Dubai Thursday to meet her family- PPP

Bhutto will return to Pakistan for the November 9 public meeting in Liaquat Bagh Rawalpindi- PPP

 

Security forces wipe out up to 70 militants in northwest Pakistan-

 

United States does not rank one country as more or less important than another in any framework of strategic interests- US Embassy

 

Relationships with each state are based on US national interests in relation to that state- US Embassy

 

US Pakistan relationship is long-term, broad-based partnership based on factors such as strong trade and investment, security interests- US Embassy

 

National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and Center for Civic Education (CCE) Report:

 

 

Political parties demand Code of Conduct extension for meaningful consultations

 

Eight major political parties express frustration and disappointment with the Election Commission of Pakistan over draft code of conduct-

 

None of them was consulted in the preparation of the draft

 

ECP fails to take into confidence the major stakeholders in the electoral process

 

PPP calls for scope of the code to be broadened from political parties to government

 

Overall political environment not conducive to free and fair elections- PML (N)

 

 

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World Public Opinion Poll

World Public Opinion Poll

 

80 pct Pakistani say government should not allow American or other foreign troops to enter Pakistan to pursue and capture al Qaeda fighters

 

 

77 pct oppose allowing foreign troops to attack Taliban insurgents based in Pakistan

 

44 pct support Pakistan army should enter FATA to pursue and capture al Qaeda fighters

 

Only 21 pct show faith in leadership of President Musharraf

 

--------------------------

 

Washington Post

 

 

Five years ago, elite Pakistani troops stationed near the border with Afghanistan began receiving hundreds of pairs of US-made night-vision goggles

 

 

But every three months, the troops had to turn in their goggles for two weeks to be inventoried, because the US military wanted to make sure none were stolen or given away

 

 

Bush administration has provided nearly $11 billion in aid to Pakistan since 2001, most of it in military hardware and cash support

 

 

Pakistani government has lacked sufficient commitment to engage the enemy- US Officials

 

US equipment is not being used in a sustained way- Seth Jones, Rand Corporation

 

There have been elements of the government that have worked with the Taliban in the tribal areas in the past-

 

Pakistan military also complain about US-made attack helicopters that are grounded for weeks because of parts shortages

 

Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States says-

"Is our military effort going as well as we hoped? No. But is Iraq going as well as hoped?" "We will fight terrorism because it is for our own good. But it is a very big job."

 

 

"The billions of American taxpayer dollars to Pakistan since September 11 have clearly failed to prevent our number one enemy from setting up shop in that country," said Sen. Robert Menendez,

 

 

The Pentagon's monitoring is conducted under a special program -- EUM, or Enhanced End-Use Monitoring -- that allows U.S. officials in Pakistan to check all the serial numbers every three months

 

 

Pakistan has received more than $6 billion from the Coalition Support Fund, government documents show

 

Washington-based nonprofit group Terror Free Tomorrow found that 19 percent of Pakistanis held a favorable view of the United States, down from 26 percent the previous year

 

Less than a tenth of overall US aid to Pakistan since 2001 has gone to support the country's economy and social infrastructure

 

About $64 million for schools -- a sum smaller than the funding level for education in a typical small US city- CSIS report

 

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